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Abstract The discovery of a second electromagnetic counterpart to a gravitational wave event represents a critical goal in the field of multi-messenger astronomy. In order to determine the optimal strategy for achieving this goal, we perform comprehensive simulations comparing two potential paths forward: continuing the current LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) observing run, O4, versus temporarily shutting down the detectors for upgrades before beginning the next observing run, O5. Our simulations incorporate current O4 instrument sensitivities and duty cycles, as well as projected configurations for O5, while accounting for variables such as binary neutron star merger rates, system properties, viewing angles, dust extinction, and kilonova (KN) observables. Our results indicate that a KN discovery would occur $125_{-125}^{+253}$days (middle 50% interval) sooner in O5 compared to O4, suggesting that extending O4 would lead to faster discovery if the shutdown period between runs is  >4 months. Moreover, for 88% of our simulations, continuing O4 results in earlier KN discovery when compared to the expected two-year shutdown between O4 and O5. Given these findings and the critical importance of avoiding a  >10 yr gap between first and second electromagnetic counterpart discoveries, we suggest LVK consider extending O4 operations for as long as feasible prior to shutting down for critical upgrades. 

ABSTRACT The local distance ladder estimate of the Hubble constant (H0) is important in cosmology, given the recent tension with the early universe inference. We estimate H0 from the Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) distance ladder, inferring SN Ia distances with the hierarchical Bayesian SED model, BayeSN. This method has a notable advantage of being able to continuously model the optical and near-infrared (NIR) SN Ia light curves simultaneously. We use two independent distance indicators, Cepheids or the tip of the red giant branch (TRGB), to calibrate a Hubble-flow sample of 67 SNe Ia with optical and NIR data. We estimate H0 = 74.82 ± 0.97 (stat) $$\pm \, 0.84$$ (sys) km $${\rm s}^{-1}\, {\rm Mpc}^{-1}$$ when using the calibration with Cepheid distances to 37 host galaxies of 41 SNe Ia, and 70.92 ± 1.14 (stat) $$\pm \, 1.49$$ (sys) km $${\rm s}^{-1}\, {\rm Mpc}^{-1}$$ when using the calibration with TRGB distances to 15 host galaxies of 18 SNe Ia. For both methods, we find a low intrinsic scatter σint ≲ 0.1 mag. We test various selection criteria and do not find significant shifts in the estimate of H0. Simultaneous modelling of the optical and NIR yields up to ∼15  per cent reduction in H0 uncertainty compared to the equivalent optical-only cases. With improvements expected in other rungs of the distance ladder, leveraging joint optical-NIR SN Ia data can be critical to reducing the H0 error budget. 

ABSTRACT We present a comprehensive, configurable open-source software framework for estimating the rate of electromagnetic detection of kilonovae (KNe) associated with gravitational wave detections of binary neutron star (BNS) mergers. We simulate the current LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) observing run (O4) using current sensitivity and uptime values as well as using predicted sensitivites for the next observing run (O5). We find the number of discoverable kilonovae during LVK O4 to be $${ 1}_{- 1}^{+ 4}$$ or $${ 2 }_{- 2 }^{+ 3 }$$, (at 90 per cent confidence) depending on the distribution of NS masses in coalescing binaries, with the number increasing by an order of magnitude during O5 to $${ 19 }_{- 11 }^{+ 24 }$$. Regardless of mass model, we predict at most five detectable KNe (at 95 per cent confidence) in O4. We also produce optical and near-infrared light curves that correspond to the physical properties of each merging system. We have collated important information for allocating observing resources for search and follow-up observations, including distributions of peak magnitudes in several broad-bands and time-scales for which specific facilities can detect each KN. The framework is easily adaptable, and new simulations can quickly be produced in response to updated information such as refined merger rates and NS mass distributions. Finally, we compare our suite of simulations to the thus-far completed portion of O4 (as of 2023, October 14), finding a median number of discoverable KNe of 0 and a 95 percentile upper limit of 2, consistent with no detections so far in O4. 

Abstract We present Young Supernova Experimentgrizyphotometry of SN 2021hpr, the third Type Ia supernova sibling to explode in the Cepheid calibrator galaxy, NGC 3147. Siblings are useful for improving SN-host distance estimates and investigating their contributions toward the SN Ia intrinsic scatter (post-standardization residual scatter in distance estimates). We thus develop a principled Bayesian framework for analyzing SN Ia siblings. At its core is the cosmology-independent relative intrinsic scatter parameter,σ_Rel: the dispersion of siblings distance estimates relative to one another within a galaxy. It quantifies the contribution toward the total intrinsic scatter,σ₀, from within-galaxy variations about the siblings’ common properties. It also affects the combined distance uncertainty. We present analytic formulae for computing aσ_Relposterior from individual siblings distances (estimated using any SN model). Applying a newly trainedBayeSNmodel, we fit the light curves of each sibling in NGC 3147 individually, to yield consistent distance estimates. However, the wideσ_Relposterior meansσ_Rel≈σ₀is not ruled out. We thus combine the distances by marginalizing overσ_Relwith an informative prior:σ_Rel∼U(0,σ₀). Simultaneously fitting the trio’s light curves improves constraints on distanceandeach sibling’s individual dust parameters, compared to individual fits. Higher correlation also tightens dust parameter constraints. Therefore,σ_Relmarginalization yields robust estimates of siblings distances for cosmology, as well as dust parameters for sibling–host correlation studies. Incorporating NGC 3147's Cepheid distance yieldsH₀= 78.4 ± 6.5 km s⁻¹Mpc⁻¹. Our work motivates analyses of homogeneous siblings samples, to constrainσ_Reland its SN-model dependence. 

Abstract Hot DA white dwarfs (DAWDs) have fully radiative pure hydrogen atmospheres that are the least complicated to model. Pulsationally stable, they are fully characterized by their effective temperatureT_effand surface gravity $\log g$, which can be deduced from their optical spectra and used in model atmospheres to predict their spectral energy distributions (SEDs). Based on this, three bright DAWDs have defined the spectrophotometric flux scale of the CALSPEC system of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). In this paper we add 32 new fainter (16.5 <V< 19.5) DAWDs spread over the whole sky and within the dynamic range of large telescopes. Using ground-based spectra and panchromatic photometry with HST/WFC3, a new hierarchical analysis process demonstrates consistency between model and observed fluxes above the terrestrial atmosphere to <0.004 mag rms from 2700 to 7750 Å and to 0.008 mag rms at 1.6μm for the total set of 35 DAWDs. These DAWDs are thus established as spectrophotometric standards with unprecedented accuracy from the near-ultraviolet to the near-infrared, suitable for both ground- and space-based observatories. They are embedded in existing surveys like the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, Pan-STARRS, and Gaia, and will be naturally included in the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope  survey by the Rubin Observatory. With additional data and analysis to extend the validity of their SEDs further into the infrared, these spectrophotometric standard stars could be used for JWST, as well as for the Roman and Euclid observatories. 

Abstract We verified for photometric stability a set of DA white dwarfs with Hubble Space Telescope magnitudes from the near-ultraviolet to the near-infrared and ground-based spectroscopy by using time-spaced observations from the Las Cumbres Observatory network of telescopes. The initial list of 38 stars was whittled to 32 final ones, which comprise a high-quality set of spectrophotometric standards. These stars are homogeneously distributed around the sky and are all fainter thanr∼ 16.5 mag. Their distribution is such that at least two of them would be available to be observed from any observatory on the ground at any time at airmass less than 2. Light curves and different variability indices from the Las Cumbres Observatory data were used to determine the stability of the candidate standards. When available, Pan-STARRS1, Zwicky Transient Facility, and TESS data were also used to confirm the star classification. Our analysis showed that four DA white dwarfs may exhibit evidence of photometric variability, while a fifth is cooler than our established lower temperature limit, and a sixth star might be a binary. In some instances, due to the presence of faint nearby red sources, care should be used when observing a few of the spectrophotometric standards with ground-based telescopes. Light curves and finding charts for all the stars are provided. 

ABSTRACT As we observe a rapidly growing number of astrophysical transients, we learn more about the diverse host galaxy environments in which they occur. Host galaxy information can be used to purify samples of cosmological Type Ia supernovae, uncover the progenitor systems of individual classes, and facilitate low-latency follow-up of rare and peculiar explosions. In this work, we develop a novel data-driven methodology to simulate the time-domain sky that includes detailed modelling of the probability density function for multiple transient classes conditioned on host galaxy magnitudes, colours, star formation rates, and masses. We have designed these simulations to optimize photometric classification and analysis in upcoming large synoptic surveys. We integrate host galaxy information into the snana simulation framework to construct the simulated catalogue of optical transients and correlated hosts (SCOTCH, a publicly available catalogue of 5-million idealized transient light curves in LSST passbands and their host galaxy properties over the redshift range 0 < z < 3. This catalogue includes supernovae, tidal disruption events, kilonovae, and active galactic nuclei. Each light curve consists of true top-of-the-galaxy magnitudes sampled with high (≲2 d) cadence. In conjunction with SCOTCH, we also release an associated set of tutorials and transient-specific libraries to enable simulations of arbitrary space- and ground-based surveys. Our methodology is being used to test critical science infrastructure in advance of surveys by the Vera C. Rubin Observatory and the Nancy G. Roman Space Telescope. 

ABSTRACT Type Iax supernovae (SNe Iax) are the most common class of peculiar SNe. While they are thought to be thermonuclear white-dwarf (WD) SNe, SNe Iax are observationally similar to, but distinct from SNe Ia. Unlike SNe Ia, where roughly 30 per cent occur in early-type galaxies, only one SN Iax has been discovered in an early-type galaxy, suggesting a relatively short delay time and a distinct progenitor system. Furthermore, one SN Iax progenitor system has been detected in pre-explosion images with its properties consistent with either of two models: a short-lived (<100 Myr) progenitor system consisting of a WD primary and a He-star companion, or a singular Wolf–Rayet progenitor star. Using deep Hubble Space Telescope images of nine nearby SN Iax host galaxies, we measure the properties of stars within 200 pc of the SN position. The ages of local stars, some of which formed with the SN progenitor system, can constrain the time between star formation and SN, known as the delay time. We compare the local stellar properties to synthetic photometry of single-stellar populations, fitting to a range of possible delay times for each SN. With this sample, we uniquely constrain the delay-time distribution for SNe Iax, with a median and 1σ confidence interval delay time of $$63_{- 15}^{+ 58} \times 10^{6}$$ yr. The measured delay-time distribution provides an excellent constraint on the progenitor system for the class, indicating a preference for a WD progenitor system over a Wolf–Rayet progenitor star.